The question of how much momentum really matters in the NFL playoffs will be put to the ultimate test when the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Foxborough for a Divisional round showdown with the New England Patriots.
The Chiefs enter as the undisputed hottest team in the league. They've won 11 straight games including a 30-0 dismantling of the Houston Texans in last weekend's Wild Card game. With that win, Andy Reid's team finally buried its playoff demons, snapping an eight-game playoff losing streak that was tied for the longest in NFL history. Kansas City did it in style, too, putting up the biggest shutout by a road team in the playoffs since the 1968, when the Colts beat the Browns 34-0.
Coming off such a dominant performance and riding an extended win streak, however, has little predictive power. In the past 25 years, seven other teams posted a shutout in the playoffs. The only one of those seven clubs to win its next game was the Carolina Panthers in 2005. The Chiefs are also the 10th team since the 1970 merger to enter the playoffs on a double-digit win streak. Of the previous nine teams, four didn't make it past the Divisional round.Still, the Chiefs' dominance over the past three months is especially notable in a wide-open AFC race where no contending team carries that overwhelming air of invincibility. In fact, since Kansas City last lost a game -- in Week 6 at Minnesota -- every other AFC team suffered at least four losses (including the playoffs).
The Patriots, meanwhile, took an opposite path to the playoffs. They started strong, winning their first 10 games, but stumbled down the stretch by losing four of their final six games. It was an unprecedented closing run for the Patriots in the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era. Never before had Brady lost two straight games to end the regular season, and it was the first time under Belichick that New England had a losing record in its final six games.
Injuries, of course, were a huge part of the Patriots struggles in the final two months. But with an extra week of rest and key starters finally getting healthy, they should enter the playoffs rejuvenated and as close to a complete picture on offense and defense as possible. Receiver Julian Edelman, offensive tackle Sebastian Vollmer, linebacker linebackerlinebacker Dont'a Hightower and defensive end Chandler Jones, among others, are expected to be ready for Saturday's game.
Now the question remains whether it is realistic for the Patriots, who looked so uninspired and lethargic in the final six weeks, to suddenly morph into the team that was so impressive during its 10-game win streak. If they can regain their early-season form and stop the streaking Chiefs, the Patriots will advance to the AFC title match for the fifth year in a row, joining the Raiders (1973-77) as the only teams to reach five straight conference championship games.
Digits
The impact of the Patriots having their full arsenal of offensive weapons for Saturday's game cannot be understated. In the first 10 games, the Patriots averaged 32 points, 412 total yards, 320 passing yards and converted 47 percent on third down. In their final six games, with Edelman and Danny Amendola missing time, their offensive output collapsed: they averaged 24 points, 311 total yards, 231 passing yards and a 33 percent third-down conversion rate.
Another key advantage for New England is playing this game at the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium. Historically, the Patriots have been really tough to beat at home in the playoffs. They are 17-4 all-time at home in the postseason, including a 8-1 mark in the Divisional round under Belichick. Even with their sluggish performance down the stretch, the Patriots still finished with the NFL's second-best record (7-1) and point differential (+111) in home games.
If the Chiefs are going to upset the defending Super Bowl champs, they need to pressure Brady with their strong defensive pass rush and make it difficult for him to distribute the ball to his playmakers. This is a matchup on paper that favors Kansas City. The Chiefs ranked fourth in sacks during the regular season, while the Patriots offensive lineallowed a total of 221 quarterback pressures (26 sacks, 48 hits, 147 hurries), the second-highest amount in the NFL.
Even if Brady has a clean pocket, the Chiefs can lean on their dominant secondary to slow down the Patriots offense. During its 11-game win streak, Kansas City has surrendered the lowest completion rate, fewest yards per attempt and lowest passer rating of any team. They have twice as many interceptions (22) as passing touchdowns allowed (11) in that span, and could give New England a lot of problems in the passing game on Saturday.
Who to Watch
With Jeremy Maclin hurting, Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce instantly becomes Alex Smith's top target. Kelce ranked in the top 10 in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown receptions among tight ends this season, and is coming off a career-best performance (eight catches, 128 yards) against the Texans. The Patriots ranked just 15th in defending tight ends, per Football Outsiders efficiency ratings, making this a matchup that Smith can potentially exploit.
For the Patriots, even if Edelman doesn't play his normal amount of snaps, his mere presence on the field will provide a much-needed boost to the offense. He led the team in receptions at the time of his injury, and his ability to get open quickly should make life easier for Brady on Saturday. Edelman was also Brady's most dependable guy to move the chains, catching a team-best 78 percent of his third-down targets
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